Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 38.272701 41.659970 45.381147 49.805324 54.965898 60.851075 68.152729
2025-03-09 32.980867 37.392813 42.583047 49.254058 57.779457 68.579105 83.776128
2025-03-16 29.294236 34.005913 39.777931 47.563855 58.125642 72.518912 94.784565
2025-03-23 27.978981 33.209181 39.869930 49.295350 62.894127 82.960956 117.640472
2025-03-30 26.221768 31.608373 38.658618 48.988200 64.600000 89.133703 135.713578
2025-04-06 24.647929 30.077482 37.341401 48.291439 65.501801 94.082829 153.325893
2025-04-13 23.005483 28.315219 35.529634 46.629808 64.585550 95.681294 164.834473
2025-04-20 22.519537 28.080691 35.817922 48.108407 68.926010 107.576278 204.944515
2025-04-27 22.002172 27.751969 35.921897 49.280934 72.903411 119.853039 254.971644
2025-05-04 21.392411 27.242538 35.703797 49.887301 75.937639 131.064842 312.494043
2025-05-11 20.579715 26.386607 34.892620 49.410784 76.837637 137.751231 362.042391
2025-05-18 19.769180 25.488525 33.953956 48.620743 76.994928 142.716494 411.509170
2025-05-25 18.937996 24.545813 32.928886 47.663707 76.839681 147.333243 470.337787
2025-06-01 18.262152 23.805896 32.183527 47.144985 77.552977 154.703006 562.715287
2025-06-08 17.419148 22.774365 30.912752 45.568464 75.770034 154.459198 607.169109
2025-06-15 17.288368 22.815734 31.367015 47.183534 81.287837 178.552599 956.026571
2025-06-22 16.797386 22.277533 30.836568 46.897212 82.404399 189.106006 1262.632813
2025-06-29 16.273274 21.665036 30.148282 46.247418 82.554049 196.440516 1623.874557
2025-07-06 15.618610 20.824388 29.038569 44.696215 80.285898 193.873219 1765.449773
2025-07-13 15.524472 20.859344 29.404324 46.076660 85.602247 224.498254 4153.770439
2025-07-20 15.381486 20.808512 29.617551 47.170098 90.436741 257.626974 18880.166734
2025-07-27 15.158840 20.619170 29.577471 47.735134 93.970352 288.275328 NaN
2025-08-03 14.792403 20.182709 29.079911 47.291122 94.548032 303.568652 NaN